Context
One of Kazakhstan’s five largest banks. A new budgeting cycle required a consistent, externally validated set of macroeconomic and industry assumptions.
Objective
Align strategy, budget, risk appetite and funding with the market scenario.
Role
Macroeconomic analysis and strategic assumptions project lead.
Approach
• Macroeconomic, industry and competitive analysis.
• Benchmarking of the sector and comparable banks.
• Translation of market pressures into management implications.
• A six-month review of assumptions.
A shared assumptions base brought together finance, strategy, risk and treasury, with analysis covering margin, regulation and tax pressures.
Outcome
Within the first three months, a consistent external foundation for strategy and budgeting was established, aligning strategy, budget and risk appetite. External validation covered 100% of key budget assumptions. A follow-up review was conducted after six months.